2020 Global Mining Predictions - How did we track?
08 January 2020
The BDO Global Natural Resources Team underwent a process of looking back on our 2020 predictions to understand how we tracked and to unveil whether and why these predictions were either 'On track' or 'Off track'. Please see below for our comments.
|
Supply chain transparency will take the compliance spotlight for 2020 as companies gear up for the European Union’s Conflict Minerals Rule, effective in 2021.
|
On track – as expected
|
Though it may not have had the lead spotlight, the EU’s Conflict Minerals Rule certainly highlighted the increased pressure mining companies are facing from external stakeholders who are more focused on ESG entities.
|
|
By 2020, robots will replace more than 50 percent of miners, and mining accidents will be cut by 75 percent. Half of the miners will themselves be retrained to run the technology controlling the robots.
|
On track – but slower than expected
|
All new mines are being designed to incorporate automation with some being fully automated. It is harder to retrofit existing mines. Mining accidents continue to fall thanks to technology improvements, such as automated vehicles and tracking devices, which monitor the relative positions of workers and hazardous equipment.
|
|
By 2020, activist hackers will launch at least five cyberattacks on mines around the world in permanent denial of service (PDoS) attacks aimed at eliminating the environmental and social threats they pose. They’ll use workers’ connected devices to launch the attacks.
|
On track – but slower than expected
|
We have seen numerous cyberattacks in the industry but not as many as expected, which is a positive sign. More than anything, this reflects the awareness of the issue in the industry and the steps companies have taken to mitigate risk. Companies must remain vigilant, though, as hackers grow more sophisticated and this risk evolves.
|
|
Global mining companies leveraging internetconnected sensors and automated drillers in mines will decrease their per ton digging costs by more than 30 percent
|
On track – but slower than expected
|
We are seeing per-ton digging costs decline substantially, but this has not been the case across all companies.
|
|
By 2020, renewables will account for one quarter of the world’s electricity generation as dependence on coal wanes.
|
Off track – has not moved much since we predicted
|
According to a renewable energy report from BP, renewable electricity generation accounted for about 9 percent of global electricity generation in 2018. Denmark (69 percent), Germany (32 percent) and the UK (32 percent) were some of the global leaders, but growth has been slower than our ambitious prediction in 2017.
|
To read how we tracked for Australia, UK, US, South Africa and Canada - please see the full report here.